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本文摘要:When Chinese conglomerate HNA paid 80 per cent over the market rate for a plot of land on the site of Hong Kong’s former airport in Kowloon late last year , there was little surprise. Many analysts simply assumed the lofty price was paid t


When Chinese conglomerate HNA paid 80 per cent over the market rate for a plot of land on the site of Hong Kong’s former airport in Kowloon late last year , there was little surprise. Many analysts simply assumed the lofty price was paid to get around the increasingly stringent controls on capital outflows from mainland China.去年底,中国企业集团海航集团(HNA)缴纳低于市场价80%的价格夺下九龙原机场区一个地块时,人们未深感吃惊。许多分析师只是指出,缴纳高价是为了绕过中国内地对资本流入的日益严苛的管制。In the past, when Chinese firms wished to buy companies or assets offshore, they could simply get the foreign branches of local banks to issue letters of credit offshore against cash they had on deposit back in China. However, today regulators in Beijing are discouraging such arrangements as they seek to keep capital from flowing out of the country and further weakening the currency. These efforts are part of a broader attempt to rein in leverage which increasingly threatens financial stability.过去,当中国企业期望出售海外公司或资产时,它们只要寻找中资银行的海外分支,以其内地存款为借贷班车海外信用证,就可以了。

然而,如今北京的监管机构开始容许这种作法,因为它们于是以想方设法制止资本流入境外、更进一步太低人民币汇率。这是目的诱导杠杆的更加宏观希望的一部分。杠杆对金融平稳造成了更加大的威胁。This comes just as Chinese investors are also increasingly using debt both to help make acquisitions and juice returns. While the People’s Bank of China is dedicated to reducing these sometimes invisible chains of borrowed money in the system, their efforts, ironically, could yet make the markets more volatile.此时,中国投资者也更加多地利用债务来协助实行并购并提高报酬。

虽然中国央行(PBoC)致力于增加金融体系中这些有时看不到的借款链条,但嘲讽的是,他们的希望有可能使市场更加不平稳。In this game of chicken between a central bank determined to control the financial markets and squeeze speculators, prudent investors and imprudent borrowers can both get crushed. The PBoC must tread carefully as it squeezes out the leverage that has helped fuel bubbles, while avoiding the risk of a damaging crash in prices. All of the choices facing the central bank’s policymakers come with painful trade-offs. Low rates encourage investors to take risks in the search for yield, but high rates make the existing debt burden of companies ever more dangerous.在这场决意掌控金融市场和抨击投机者的央行与投机者之间的懦夫博弈论(game of chicken)中,慎重的投资者和鲁莽的借款人都有可能遭碾压。


Worries about leverage in China, especially in the shadow banking system, are nothing new but still have the capacity to deliver unpleasant shocks. In the summer of 2015, few understood how much of the bull market in Chinese shares was driven by purchases made with borrowed money. More than a year on, the bond market is the subject of similar concern.对于中国的杠杆、尤其是影子银行体系杠杆的忧虑,不是什么新鲜事,但仍有能力导致令人不悦的冲击。在2015年夏天,很少有人确切中国股市的牛市在多大程度上是由还债股市推展的。一年多之后,债券市场经常出现了某种程度的忧虑。

Last week, the central bank engineered a dramatic, if not unprecedented, squeeze of liquidity in the offshore market that drove the overnight funding rate between banks higher. One effect of such a move was to make it more expensive to bet against the renminbi in Hong Kong, a major trading hub for the currency.不久前,中国央行在离岸市场急遽放宽流动性(即便并非史无前例),推高了银行间人民币隔夜外汇市场利率。此举的效果之一,是提升在香港做空人民币的成本。香港是全球主要人民币交易中心之一。

By pushing up the rate that banks charge one another to borrow overnight, the central bank also hit prices in the bond market. This could ultimately lead to capital losses for investors, and has already forced some companies to cancel plans to sell debt.中国央行推高离岸银行间隔夜外汇市场利率,也压制了债市价格。这有可能最后造成投资者的资本损失,并已被迫一些企业中止了发债计划。The problems have been building for some time. As a consequence of interest rates being kept low in the interbank market until late October, banks issued certificates of deposit and then put the proceeds in the bond market in a lucrative arbitrage, according to Jianguang Shen, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Asia Securities in Hong Kong.这些问题早已筹划了一段时间。

根据香港瑞穗证券亚洲(Mizuho Securities Asia)首席经济学家沈建光的众说纷纭,由于到去年10月下旬银行间市场利率仍然维持在低位,各银行发售存款单,然后将现金收益投资于债市,构建利润可观的套利。Mr Shen now fears that some of the riskiest wealth management products through which investors secure access to the bond market involves using leverage of nine times. That is similar to the leverage in the riskiest slices of the subprime securities that wreaked havoc in the US mortgage market in 2008.现在沈建光担忧,让投资者以求投资于债市的一些风险最低的理财产品,用于了9倍的杠杆。2008年,导致美国抵押贷款市场重创的次级证券中风险最低的部分,其杠杆大体也在这一水平。



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